Burma

The Situation

Aung San Suu Kyi's win in the April 1st by-elections marked a significant step in Burma's path towards political reform. Days after the elections, Western nations are considering lifting sanctions placed on the country over the past decades but attacks on civilians continue in minority ethnic areas. The Obama administration has taken steps to normalize relations with the Burmese government by appointing Derek Mitchell as the U.S. Ambassador to Burma, lifting a travel ban on some of the country's senior leaders and easing sanctions on American investments. Yet ongoing human rights abuses, particularly in ethnic areas means that sanctions should be lifted gradually to spur deeper reforms. 

Burma has long been a global pariah for its suppression of human rights. Since taking control of the country in 1962, the Burmese military government has waged counter-insurgency campaigns against ethnic minorities in the eastern states, leading to widespread civilian deaths. In targeting these populations, the government has committed thousands of documented cases of summary executions, torture, rape, forced labor, forced relocation and burning down churches, schools and entire villages.

Recent fighting has been concentrated in eastern Burma, where government forces have until recently targeted the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA). In this region bordering Thailand, the government has used forced labor to build bases from which it can destroy surrounding villages and has mined the razed areas to discourage the return of villagers. Areas outside of the government's control have been designated as "black zones," where civilians can be shot on sight. Government troops have reportedly used rape against ethnic minority women as part of a campaign of "Burmanization" through forced pregnancy. The government's attempts to suppress all dissent within its territory have also resulted in attacks in Shan State along the Chinese border and in the Rohingya region bordering Bangladesh.

The Burmese junta that took control in 1988 has also taken a hard line against pro-democracy protestors, imprisoning more than 2,200 activists. The most famous, Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, was under house arrest for 15 of the past 23 years. In recent months, however, the government has expressed new commitments to political, social and economic reform. The recent release of hundreds of political prisoners, the participation of the National League for Democracy (NLD) and that of its iconic pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi in the April 2012 elections, and the fact that the Burmese regime has held preliminary ceasefire talks with ethnic armed groups are signs that have been welcomed by Western nations and have led to partial lifting of sanctions and moves toward diplomatic normalization.

What are we watching for?

It is premature to say that there is an opening of the political space in Burma. Despite Suu Kyi's historic win, it remains to be seen how much political influence the NLD will have in a parliament dominated by military cronies and how various ethnic groups will be included.

The Burmese government has held cease-fire talks with various ethnic armed groups as part of a bold peace initiative to end decades of civil war. In December 2011, the government ordered the military to stop operations against ethnic Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in the north. However, not long after, attacks by the Burmese army killed three and caused the displacement of over 40,000 Kachin people. These activities are still occurring today. This raises questions about the extent to which President Thein Sein is truly in control of the military and whether or not he has the ability to enforce the peace agreements. As the government holds talks with other ethnic groups, it remains to be seen if these agreements will bring an end to the army's perpetration of gross human rights violations — extrajudicial killings, torture, sexual violence, beatings, abusive forced labor, antipersonnel landmines and pillaging of property.

It is clear that sanctions are an important tool for encouraging further change in Burma but lifting sanctions too soon could undermine incentives for deeper and more fundamental reforms in Burma. The lack of military buy-in is a significant stumbling block to the process. One way to influence the military is through corporations doing business in Burma's natural resources sector, particularly in the resource-rich eastern states, as the military relies on the exploitation of the country's natural wealth to wage war with ethnic minorities.