Yemen

Watchlist

The Situation

In the wake of uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, demonstrations against the government of then-President Ali Abdullah Saleh began in late January 2011. Like many other dictators, Saleh responded with violence to quell the protests that were originally about economic conditions but quickly escalated into demands for his resignation. In March 2011, security forces opened fire on tens of thousands of protesters in Sana’a. At least 50 people were killed and more than 100 injured. The attacks did not dispel the crowds but fueled further demonstrations. This turning point set in motion Saleh’s eventual demise as he began to lose domestic support. Tribal leaders backed the uprising and a string of Yemeni officials resigned from the regime. Yemen’s opposition coalition, the Joint Meetings Parties, proposed a plan under which Saleh would leave by the end 2011. But protesters then rejected the plan and called for Saleh’s immediate resignation.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) echoed international voices for a transfer of presidential powers to a government of national unity. In April 2011, Saleh accepted a proposal by Gulf mediators that would shift power to his deputy and grant him and his family, who occupy key positions in Yemen’s security apparatus, immunity from prosecution. Protesters rejected the deal, saying that Saleh should leave without condition. After initial deliberation, the Joint Meetings Parties said it would accept the idea, including immunity, if protests were allowed to continue during the interim period.

In November 2011, Saleh signed a GCC-brokered agreement transferring power to his deputy and granting him immunity from prosecution for his alleged role in orchestrating the violent crackdowns on protestors, a condition that is opposed by many in the opposition. After more than a year of antigovernment protests and violent clashes in the street, Yemenis went to polling stations to vote out Saleh in February 2012. Saleh’s deputy, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, was sworn in as President in front of parliament after winning 99.6 percent of the vote in the country’s single candidate election, marking the end of Saleh’s 33 years of authoritarian rule. He will oversee Yemen’s transitional period until 2014.

Under the leadership of Saleh, North and South Yemen unified in 1990 following years of border wars. However, peace broke down in 1994 and the subsequent civil war ended in defeat for separatist southerners, ensuring the survival of the unified Yemen. Prior to the uprising, government troops had been battling Houthi rebels in the north, though a truce was signed in February 2010. In the south, they have fought separatists who lost the civil war in 1994. Southern Yemen is also home to al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The state has lost control of certain parts of the country following more than a year of uprising, giving Islamist militants more freedom to operate. Yemen is the Arab world’s most impoverished country with high unemployment levels, and citizens are going hungry in a country with the most serious water scarcity in the world. The oil reserves Yemen has sold to pay for food imports are rapidly depleting. 

What are we watching for?

As Yemen enters a new era, President Hadi must tackle political, economic and security challenges to ensure a successful transition to democracy. Though ousted from power, Saleh still wields considerable influence in Yemen through his relatives who control most the military and government security agencies. It remains to be seen how independent President Hadi, a longtime Saleh loyalist, will be.

Security concerns, notably attacks by Islamist militants—some of which are linked to Al-Qaeda—on army encampment in southern Yemen, underscore one of the many challenges that Hadi will face during the two year transitional period.  Meanwhile, protesters have remained on the street calling for a complete overhaul of the divided military—without a unified national army, Yemen’s attempt at stability, let alone democratization will be futile. Given that the uprising was mainly led by young people frustrated at the lack of jobs and economic development, Hadi must listen to youth grievances as he begins the rebuilding process.

United to End Genocide is concerned about a growing humanitarian crisis as well as a precarious security situation. There is a growing humanitarian crisis in the country as 6.8 million Yemenis experience food insecurity, with three million in need of immediate assistance, and approximately 350,000 people have been displaced by the conflict in the north.

We are also concerned by security threats to civilians from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and separatist movements in the north and the south, in the absence of a robust national army.